It seems as if the this summer. But even as wildfires in Europe and North America grow more extreme, key worldwide burning statistics are at a record low largely because Africa and Asia are controlling fire more.
Experts say these seemingly opposite trends are happening at the same time because of what humanity is doing to the planet.
鈥淚t does seem like a paradox because we鈥檙e talking increases in fires, yet the global numbers have been going down and down. But they鈥檙e both true,鈥� said fire scientist Mike Flannigan of Thompson Rivers University in Canada.
Spain’s wildfire is at more than 193 square miles (500 square kilometers) while have burned just a bit under 2025’s all-time high. In and the this summer, land burned by wildfires is at least 25% higher than the 10-year average and more than double what it was decades ago, according to centers. Entire chunks of the continent were , causing unhealthy air quality.
Fires are worsening in terms of size, intensity, speed and frequency, especially in the U.S., Canada and Europe, said University of Colorado fire scientist Jennifer Balch.
鈥淓xtreme wildfires are on the rise globally in different parts of the world. And that鈥檚 the piece that you know has us shaking in our boots,” Balch said.
Fires decrease in Africa, Asia
And yet the world went into July this year with record low global emissions from burning fires, a key measure of their prevalence, the European climate center Copernicus reported. That is because fires in Africa and Asia are way down due to changing agricultural practices, fire management and where people are moving to, said Mark Parrington, a senior scientist at Copernicus. Copernicus from burning are the lowest since satellites first measured nearly 25 years ago 鈥� about half what they were in the early 2000s.
鈥淎frica dominates the global fire activity,鈥� said UCLA water and fire scientist Park Williams. 鈥淪o if there鈥檚 a trend in Africa, then that鈥檚 going to be the trend in the global fire activity. In sub-Saharan Africa, fire activity over the last 25 years has gone down pretty dramatically.鈥�
On average, more than three-quarters of the global emissions from the burning of plant material comes from Africa and Asia, Copernicus statistics show. Less than one-eighth comes from North America and Europe.
Traditionally, huge grassland fires on the African savanna burned each year, compared to more intermittent forest fires in other regions, influencing worldwide fire totals, said John Abatzaglou, a fire scientist at the University of California Merced. But with more land being used for housing and farming, humans are limiting savanna fires, while also creating barriers to prevent fires from spreading, he said.
In Asia and the Amazon fires are often used to clear land for agriculture, experts said. So, Williams said, 鈥渋t really is all driven by human demographic change.鈥�
Human fingerprints on North American and European fire trends
In North America and Europe there are also 鈥渉uman fingerprints鈥� on the more extreme fires dominating the news, but that is from climate change Abatzaglou said. Climate change from the burning of coal, oil and gas is making it hotter and drier 鈥� ideal fire weather 鈥� five different experts told The Associated Press.
Hotter temperatures mean humans 鈥渉ave our foot on the gas pedal鈥� for bigger fires, 鈥渂ut we also have lost the brakes on fire鈥� because warmer and wetter nights don’t give forests 鈥� or firefighters 鈥� time to recover during darkness like they used to, Balch said.
When it gets hotter, the atmosphere sucks more moisture out of the ground, making it drier and easier to burn, Flannigan said. Climate change also increases the length of the burning season across North America and especially in forests where there used to be only a few days when the weather was conducive to wildfires, but now there are a lot more, he said.
And when climate change makes fire more extreme in places with larger populations, it tends to have a greater impact by burning more valuable property, Flannigan said.
Abatzaglou said that North America has long done a good job of fire suppression. But with climate change making fires more intense and frequent, 鈥渨e’re losing our ability to do that,鈥� he said.
El Nino will add to fires
Fire activity is likely to get worse in the coming months because of the developing The weather pattern usually triggers more dangerous fires in the tropics, less so in the United States because of more rain, experts said. South American governments .
鈥淭he most predictable outcome of El Nino is going to be more tropical fire, specifically tropical forests,鈥� Williams said.
Williams said El Nino could increase fires in the Amazon region, Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific.
While El Nino means more rain and fewer forest fires in the U.S. West, it can also mean more grass growth in deserts that adds fuel for eventual grass fires, Abatzaglou said. Examples of devastating grass fires include and ,
Regardless of El Nino, scientists said areas in North America and Europe will have to improve planning and adaptation for worsening wildfires, including prescribed burns to thin excess trees and grasses.
鈥淚t鈥檚 not a question of whether our landscapes are going to burn, it鈥檚 the question of when they鈥檙e going to burn,鈥� Balch said.
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