WASHINGTON (AP) 鈥� Louisiana Republicans will nominate a candidate for U.S. Senate in a primary runoff Saturday, six weeks after a shot at a third term.
Although President Donald Trump already achieved one of his top political goals with Cassidy鈥檚 defeat, Saturday鈥檚 runoff could further demonstrate his ongoing influence in Republican primaries as he tries to populate the halls of Congress with loyalists for his final two years in office. The seat is not a top target among Democrats looking to win back control of the chamber in November.
Republican U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow and state Treasurer John Fleming are the finalists for Cassidy鈥檚 now-open U.S. Senate seat. Trump encouraged Letlow to challenge Cassidy in the primary and endorsed her before she . Letlow took office in 2021 in a special election to replace her husband, Luke Letlow, who in 2020 before taking office. Fleming served in Congress for eight years leading up to Trump鈥檚 first term. He ran for U.S. Senate in 2016 but failed to make the runoff. Republican John Kennedy won the seat.
In the May 16 primary, Letlow placed first with about 45% of the vote, short of the majority required to avoid Saturday鈥檚 runoff. Fleming placed second with 28% of the vote, just ahead of Cassidy with about 25%.
Letlow led in small, mostly rural parishes across the state, with outright majorities in parishes in northeastern Louisiana and along the Mississippi border. Fleming mostly placed a distant second across the state. He performed best in northwestern Louisiana, with leads in nine rural parishes, but not in Caddo, home to Shreveport, where he finished a close second behind Letlow.
Cassidy was the top vote-getter in the state鈥檚 three most populous parishes, including Orleans Parish where he led Letlow by almost a three-to-one margin. But he barely outperformed Letlow in East Baton Rouge and Jefferson parishes.
The president鈥檚 endorsees have generally had a strong winning record at the ballot box, but his recent picks for governor of Iowa and Georgia lost their primaries. Trump endorsed South Carolina Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette for governor ahead of the primary, but after she was forced to a runoff in a close vote, he announced he was backing both her and her opponent, state Attorney General Alan Wilson, who won the nomination on Tuesday.
Trump has reissued his endorsement of Letlow several times since January, including most recently in mid-June. He has not also endorsed Fleming.
Louisiana Democrats will also finalize their U.S. Senate nominee, with farmer Jamie Davis and Navy veteran Gary Crockett competing in the runoff.
Other primary runoffs on the ballot include Republican contests for Public Service Commission and state board of education, where incumbent board member and former Republican U.S. Rep. Joseph Cao faces a challenge from educator and business owner Ellie Schroder.
Primaries for U.S. House were to November after the U.S. Supreme Court the state鈥檚 current congressional map, which includes a majority Black district that favors Democrats. Although the state had previously adopted a for congressional races, the postponed U.S. House races will revert to using an 鈥渙pen鈥� or 鈥� 鈥� primary system where candidates run on the same ballot regardless of party.
Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the will monitor as the votes are tallied:
When do polls close?
Polls close at 8 p.m. CT, which is 9 p.m. ET.
What鈥檚 on the ballot?
The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in primary runoffs for U.S. Senate, state Public Service Commission and state school board.
Who gets to vote?
Registered party members may vote only in their own party鈥檚 primary runoffs. In other words, Democrats can鈥檛 vote in a Republican runoff or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters who voted in a party鈥檚 primary on May 16 may only vote in that same party鈥檚 runoff. Independent or unaffiliated voters who did not vote in a partisan primary on May 16 may vote in either party鈥檚 runoff.
How many voters are there?
As of June 1, there were about 3 million registered voters in Louisiana. Registered Democrats and Republicans numbered about 1.1 million each, with registered Democrats at a slight advantage. About 819,000 voters were not registered with any party. The remainder were registered with other parties.
How many people actually vote?
About 832,000 Louisianans participated in the May 16 primary, or about 28% of registered voters. This includes about 347,000 registered Democrats and about 336,000 registered Republicans.
In 2022 when the state still used 鈥渙pen鈥� or 鈥渏ungle鈥� primary rules for certain contests, turnout fell from 1.4 million in the November primary to about 439,000 in the December runoff, or about 47% of registered voters to about 14%.
How much of the vote is cast early or by absentee ballot?
About 33% of Democratic primary votes and about 31% of Republican primary votes in the May 16 primaries were cast early in-person or by mail.
As of Thursday, about 82,000 ballots from Republicans and about 61,000 ballots from Democrats had already been cast in Saturday鈥檚 runoffs.
When are early and absentee votes released?
Results from early and absentee voting are usually released by each parish in the first vote update.
How long does vote-counting usually take?
In the May 16 primary, the AP first reported results at 9:02 p.m. ET, or two minutes after polls closed. By 10:46 p.m. ET, more than 90% of the total vote had been counted. The last vote update of the night was at 1:30 a.m. ET with about 99.9% of total votes counted.
When will the AP declare a winner?
The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it鈥檚 determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
How do recounts work?
There are no automatic recounts in Louisiana, but a candidate may request and pay for a recount of absentee and early votes. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
Are we there yet?
As of Saturday, there will be 129 days until the Nov. 3 general election and the Louisiana congressional primaries, and 168 days until the Louisiana congressional general election on Dec. 12.
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