OMAHA, Neb. (AP) 鈥� The fate of Nebraska’s 鈥渂lue dot鈥� 鈥� a small, but significant factor in presidential politics 鈥� will take center stage Tuesday as Democratic voters select a congressional nominee in the state’s high-profile 2nd District.
The Omaha-area district, where Republican , is one of the Democratic Party’s biggest targets this midterm season. It’s also a national focus every four years in presidential contests because Nebraska is one of just two states that splits its electoral votes. The 2nd District has gone to Democratic presidential candidates three out of five times since 2008 鈥� a 鈥渂lue dot鈥� in an otherwise sea of red.
Three Democrats are seen as the top contenders in Tuesday’s primary: state Sen. John Cavanaugh, political activist Denise Powell and district court clerk Crystal Rhoades. Republican Brinker Harding, an Omaha City Council member endorsed by President Donald Trump, is running unopposed on the GOP side.
Cavanaugh, more than anyone else on Tuesday’s ballot, has been under attack from both parties.
Some Democratic opponents argue that a primary victory for Cavanaugh would jeopardize the district’s 鈥渂lue dot鈥� status because he’d be leaving his valuable state legislative seat, making it easier for Republicans in the Nebraska Legislature to change the law that allows the state to split its electoral votes.
The issue has defined the primary contest perhaps more than any other.
Opponents say the 鈥榖lue dot鈥� is in danger
The Democratic argument against Cavanaugh has little to do with his politics or policies.
His opponents and groups backing them have flooded mailboxes, airwaves and social media warning that if he wins the congressional primary, Nebraska’s Republican governor would appoint a conservative Republican to replace him in the Legislature.
That move, they say, could give state Republicans enough votes to enact a conservative wish list that includes stricter limitations on abortion and transgender rights.
It could also empower Republicans to enact or change the state’s unusual system of splitting presidential electoral votes, some Democrats argue. Republicans failed in 2024 to pass a bill that would have made Nebraska the 49th state to award its Electoral College votes on a basis.
鈥淥ur Blue Dot. We fought hard for it. But if John Cavanaugh goes to Congress, it could all fall down,鈥� cautions one TV ad by the super PAC New Democrat Majority.
EMILY鈥檚 List, a national group that supports women running for office, has put its reach and money behind Powell, calling Cavanaugh鈥檚 candidacy 鈥渁 gift to MAGA Republicans.鈥�
Republican groups also target Cavanaugh
Republican groups have sent out mailers and social media posts claiming Cavanaugh 鈥渋s in agreement with President Donald Trump鈥� and showing a photo of Cavanaugh overlaid on a photo of the president, making it appear as if the two are standing together.
鈥淐learly, the Republicans know that I鈥檓 the strongest general election candidate,鈥� Cavanaugh said. 鈥淎nd so they鈥檙e trying to hurt me.鈥�
The attacks on Cavanaugh show Democrats and Republicans believe he has the best chance of winning the general election, said Paul Landow, a former Nebraska Democratic Party executive director.
He called the 鈥渂lue dot鈥� attacks disingenuous, noting Republicans already have a filibuster-proof majority in the Legislature but have still failed to pass key elements of their agenda because it is unpopular even among GOP lawmakers. The argument that a Cavanaugh win could weaken the state鈥檚 鈥渂lue dot鈥� also assumes Democrats won鈥檛 pick up additional legislative seats this year, he said.
鈥淭here鈥檚 so many things that have to fall into place for this alleged danger to the 鈥榖lue dot,鈥欌�� Landow said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 just wild speculation.鈥�
The Democratic primary grows contentious
While all the Democratic contenders cite affordability and opposition to Trump administration policies 鈥� from immigration and healthcare to military actions 鈥� the top three contenders began attacking one another more aggressively in the days leading up to the primary.
Candidates and allied groups have spent more than $2.6 million on TV and digital advertising since Jan. 1, according to the advertising tracking company AdImpact. Nearly all of that has been by or on behalf of Cavanaugh and Powell.
Cavanaugh has spent about $375,000. Powell’s campaign has spent almost as much 鈥� $345,000 鈥� but with the help of groups backing her, campaign advertising has been overwhelmingly pro-Powell.
Powell co-founded Women Who Run Nebraska, a political action committee that supports progressive female candidates, and she has a decade of Democratic political activism. She’s never held office but said her deep connections have helped her with independents and third-party voters who make up nearly 30% of the district’s electorate.
鈥淢y name recognition has increased dramatically,鈥� Powell said, adding that “people are really connecting with my message.鈥�
Rhoades carries her own name recognition after 20 years in public service and running a slew of successful local Democratic elections 鈥� including that of Omaha Mayor John Ewing, who unseated a longtime Republican last year. Rhoades has raised a fraction of what Cavanaugh and Powell have amassed, but said she’s intentionally eschewing campaign ads and instead blanketing the city with door-knocking and personal contact with voters.
Both Powell and Rhoades have leaned heavily into the concern that Democrats’ influence in the district will erode if Cavanaugh is elected to Congress.
The winner of Tuesday’s primary will head to a highly competitive general election. Trump won the district in 2016, and the retiring Bacon, who has clashed with Trump, has held the House seat for five terms.
Other Tuesday contests
Also on Tuesday’s ballot is the race for U.S. Senate, where Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts is seeking a full term, following his and 2024 special election victory to Republican .
Ricketts faces four Republican primary challengers, but he鈥檚 already to an expected general election contest against independent candidate , an industrial mechanic and military veteran who of defeating Republican U.S. Sen. Deb Fischer in . Running in the Democratic primary are William Forbes and Cindy Burbank.
In the race for governor, incumbent Republican Gov. Jim Pillen faces five primary challengers, while former state Sen. Lynne Walz and frequent candidate Larry Marvin compete for the Democratic nomination. Marvin previously ran for U.S. Senate four times since 2012.
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Peoples reported from New York.
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