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The next big races between moderates and progressives are in pivotal Midwestern states

ST. PAUL, Minn. (AP) 鈥 Minnesotans are known for their niceness, but pleasantries are rare in the state’s Democratic primary.

, U.S. Rep. Angie Craig and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, have clashed over electability, their ties to corporate interests and willingness to fight Republican President Donald Trump’s administration in Washington. Millions of dollars in political ads have blanketed televisions and phone screens for a race that has become emblematic of Democrats’ deeper divides.

The increasingly bitter contest will be among the next races where progressive candidates are facing more moderate rivals. August primaries in Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota will be another gauge of Democratic voters鈥 frustration with the establishment. The races across the Upper Midwest may also offer another test of the electability of hard-left candidates.

After notable progressive successes so far this year, party leaders worry these candidates could damage Democrats’ brand and imperil their chances of retaking this fall or maintaining the governor’s mansion in a battleground state ahead of the 2028 presidential election. The progressive left says recent results prove their message is the party’s path to victory.

Flanagan, who is backed by progressive Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, last week convened a press conference to condemn 鈥渟ecretive dark money groups and special interests鈥 she says are at work in the Minnesota race. She argued the groups are working to elect Craig, a more conventional Democrat backed by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York and other senior Democratic leaders.

鈥淲hat we are facing right now in our party,鈥 Flanagan told The Associated Press, 鈥渋s the very folks who are standing in the way of the things that people need to be able to afford their lives, who are Democrats, are funded by these corporate special interests. That is the choice I think that we have, and people are onto it.鈥

Craig counters that Flanagan raised campaign funds from major companies while chair of the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association. She says that if Flanagan becomes the Democratic nominee, Republicans would focus on her ties to into the state’s

鈥淭he coalition we鈥檙e building is people in Minnesota who understand that in order to stop Donald Trump, we鈥檝e got to win elections,鈥 Craig told the AP. She warned that Minnesota is often underappreciated as 鈥渢he very definition of a swing state, and we simply can鈥檛 take this U.S. Senate seat for granted.鈥

Craig argued that it was important that Democrats do not reject corporate funding while Republicans continue to embrace backing from wealthy donors. She also said she supports major campaign finance reforms restricting the role of money in politics.

鈥淏ut until we get to that day, it鈥檚 naive to think that we鈥檙e not going to need resources,鈥 Craig said.

Upper Midwest becomes next theater in Democrats’ progressive vs. moderate fight

The Minnesota primary, in which Flanagan and Craig are vying for the seat vacated by Democratic Sen. Tina Smith, is Aug. 11. Wisconsin also holds its primary that day 鈥 one week after voters will choose nominees in Michigan on Aug. 4.

In Michigan, is running against progressive for the state’s Democratic Senate nomination in a race Democrats must win to hold the seat held by Sen. Gary Peters, who is retiring and has . And in Wisconsin, democratic socialist state has surged in the state’s Democratic gubernatorial primary against more conventional Democratic lawmakers, including former Lt. Gov. and current Lt. Gov. .

In each case, progressives hope to prove that an economically populist message resonates with voters beyond deep blue enclaves where they have had recent success, like and . But Democratic leaders fear that the insurgent candidates risk blowing winnable races for Democrats with messages considered too radical for most voters.

Craig also criticized progressives for gambling with Democrats’ chances to retake the Senate due to poor campaigning and vetting of candidates. She noted the recent , who easily won the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in Maine in June but dropped out of the race last week after facing an allegation of sexual assault, which he denies.

鈥淲e just saw one of our best Senate opportunities go down in flames in Maine, potentially, with that same coalition,鈥 Craig said.

鈥淎nd many of the same people are working on the lieutenant governor鈥檚 campaign as Graham Platner鈥檚 campaign,” Craig added. “My coalition is statewide. I鈥檓 going everywhere. I鈥檓 talking to everyone. I鈥檓 working to bring people back to the (Democratic Party).鈥

Following the fallout from the Platner scandal, progressives view the Upper Midwest Senate races as their last chance to shape the Democrats’ Senate caucus and prove their theory of the case in the midterm elections.

鈥淎bdul El-Sayed was already the most important primary candidate in the nation, and this underscores the importance of that race, both in the primary and the general,鈥 said Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, a political action committee that backs Flanagan and El-Sayed.

The organization views this year’s Senate races in Michigan and Maine as key tests of whether progressives鈥 message and organizing strategies could prove effective in competitive races. The high-stakes strategy was meant to assuage potential concerns among Democratic voters that progressives are unelectable in competitive races ahead of the party鈥檚 2028 presidential primary.

鈥淥ur hope is to not have an outlier but a pattern of shake-up-the-system economic fighters who win tough swing state elections,” Green said.

A long populist history in the Midwest

The Upper Midwest has populist traditions going back decades, including by electing progressive and conservative populists, said Steven Schier, a political science professor at Carleton College in Northfield, Minnesota. The region was often a model for the Progressive Era鈥檚 reform-minded policies, but it also elected some of the most stridently conservative Cold War voices like Sen. Joseph McCarthy of Wisconsin.

鈥淲hat鈥檚 interesting about the Upper Midwest is that you get well-developed and articulated left populism, and well-developed and articulated right populism in competition and combat. It produces some very lively election seasons,鈥 Schier said.

More recently, the Great Lakes region has been the nation’s marquee political battleground, with state legislatures and the presidential winner swinging between Democratic and Republican candidates for the last decade. No matter who wins, the results of the midterm primaries in the region will have major ripple effects in national politics.

鈥淭his culture will take broad concerns that populists bring up and trumpet them throughout the electoral system, and that鈥檚 true on both the right and the left up here,” Schier said.

___

Follow the AP鈥檚 coverage of the 2026 election at .

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